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The chicken are coming home to roost.

When we wrote a piece in March about the need for political realignments now that Baba will likely not be holding the hands of Nyanza politicians in 2027 we were accused of empty rhetoric. We even said that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party is synonymous with Raila Amollo Odinga and in his absence, even nominally, the party will significantly be weakened; opening inroads to upcoming political parties. Again our detractors said that was a figment of our imagination.

But what I vividly remember saying was that Siaya County was poised for historical changes politically — for once voters will have the opportunity, yet again, to elect their leaders without the hangups of that infamous six-piece voting mantra.

I said then, that as the bedrock of ODM Party, Siaya is poised for a shocker. Six MPs are facing mixed fortunes with Alego-Usonga, Bondo and Rarieda legislators facing insurmountable opposition and already showing signs of having lost touch with the ground.


The Gem MP is engaged in a game of make-believe pretending to be having very close ties with State House and thinking that his opponents are newcomers to the game of political thuggery and violence. In fact one of his opponents has proved to match his capacity goon-for-goon. To borrow the Luo slang for these things here we say: Biro Bedo Mondisore!

Ugenya is in a quandrum. The MP was popular when there was ODM Party to fight, but now that ODM is in disarray he will be fighting shadows and that battle is never won.

We are still unable to make an informed prediction on Ugunja. The sitting MP is immensely popular on the ground but walking a tightrope when it comes to national politics. If only Baba could come out decisively and just one last time hold his hand, then James Opiyo Wandayi is the only Siaya politician whose goose is not cooked, yet.

And the oracle has it that sometime in March 2027 the Speaker and two others will present their names to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) as candidates for position of Governor. When the results are announced what James Aggrey Bob Orengo will have done to them; I will not say here.

Suffice it to say that, holding the hands of other people is a magnanimous gesture of good leadership. It shows a leader is in tandem with the reality on the ground. When a leader forgets to hold the hands of his followers the whole socio-political structure crumbles. To borrow the English slang for these things here we say: It goes down!

Anyway, who am I for anyone to pay attention to my sagacity? Have a prophetic day.


Editorial Tuesday 9 April 2024

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